Vietnam’s economic growth this year will reach only 6.21 per cent, lower than the 6.68 per cent recorded in 2015 and the target of 6.3 per cent set by the government at its regular meeting in September 2016, the Vietnam Center for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) wrote in a report released on June 16.
The Vietnam Annual Economic Report 2017 was launched at a conference on June 16.
VEPR Director Mr. Nguyen Duc Thanh told a press conference on June 16 to release the Vietnam Annual Economic Report 2017, with the theme “Accelerating Reforms Towards a Facilitating State”, that economic growth will not be as good as previously expected.
VEPR has forecast two scenarios. Under the scenario for 6.7 per cent growth, inflation would be 3.2 per cent and pose problems for sustainable growth.
The second scenario is for economic growth to reach around 6.37 per cent and inflation 2.35 per cent.
The report also provides analysts of short-term policies and medium- to long-term policies.
A short-term mindset in dealing with the slowdown in growth may slow the forces behind reforms and delay the recovery of sustainable growth, such as efforts to increase capital, accelerate the disbursement of public projects, and the extraction of crude oil.
Policymakers, therefore, need to be cautious about adjusting monetary policy, and especially need to be cautious and independent in adjusting credit growth plans to maintain inflation targets.
The government also needs to seriously implement policies on staff cuts and cutting recurrent expenditure and provide financial support to the budget-funded activities of various associations.
Policymakers also need to adjust policies in line with the rapidly emerging middle class.